After years of suppression, opium production seems to be on the rise in Burma. Why is this happening and what does it mean?
Concerted efforts managed to reduce the amount of opium (and, hence, heroin) being produced in the Golden Triangle over the course of decades. The Golden Triangle is the still partly uncharted and unmanaged region that unites the very Southern tip of China with northern Burma [Myanmar] and Laos. The difficulty of that terrain and the limitations on state power, especially in Laos and Burma, made it extremely difficult for state or trans-state agencies to penetrate the region and monitor the growth of opium. In Burma in particular, the government has been quite unable to control those border regions which are dominated by rebelling ethnic minorities and, in some cases, by criminal warlords such as Khun Sa. However, the American involvement in the Second Indochina War (also known as the Vietnam War) meant that there was a hugely increased amount of American forces in the region, particularly in terms of airpower, and this was used to help eliminate the growth of opium. As the recently published 2007 World Drug Report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime has demonstrated, the total level of opium production in Southeast Asia has been reduced significantly and this has had a very helpful impact in the attempt to suppress drug use around the world.
However, the report also indicates that there are indications that Burmese opium production is starting to increase again. As the recent Saffron Revolution demonstrated, the Burmese junta has not been able to enforce control throughout the country. Whether, though, the drug production is the result of junta-condoned activity or by rebel groups is not entirely clear. There would be clear advantages to the junta in permitting opium growth – and few downsides insofar as the regime’s reputation could scarcely get any worse. As the leadership of North Korea has shown, possession of items no one else wants to see offers a serious bargaining chip. It would also provide an alternative source of revenue, which is always welcome, as well as representing a potential weapon that could be waved at neighbours who might waver in support. India, China and Thailand, for example, appear to be locked into a situation in which they will not wholeheartedly criticize the Burmese generals because of economic actions. If internal or external pressure were to call this support into doubt, the Burmese generals (who Lee Kuan Yew yesterday called ‘rather dumb’) might brandish the possibility of releasing drugs into those countries. This is, after all, not a very rational regime.
