Resisting Sanctions in Burma
Freedom for Burma Hampered by Commercial Interests
Why there are unlikely to be meaningful sanctions brought against the Burmese junta by important trade and investment partners.
Long-term oil and gas contracts with the Burmese junta have placed the Thai junta in a suddenly vulnerable position as the world learns of the violent crackdown on monks and peaceful demonstrators in Rangoon and across the country. When oil reserves were discovered and determined to be feasible, Thailand was governed by Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Rak Thai party with a policy of engagement. If economic development could reach its tentacles into Burma, so the theory went, then not only would the long-suffering Burmese people have some reason for optimism for the future but burgeoning wealth would inevitably lead to more personal freedoms.
After all, as recent events have shown, ownership of personal consumer goods such as mobile telephones and computers enable at least some access to information from the outside world – and the ability to communicate what is going on at home to the rest of the world. After the military coup in Thailand in September 2006, that policy fell into abeyance, not because the generals had any better plan but because they did not really have any plan at all. Contracts remained in force and that seemed to be that.
However, the Burmese protests have put the deal into the spotlight. The Thai junta is currently rearranging itself. Chief ringleader General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin has been obliged to retire from his position as head of the army because of his age, and has now taken up position as Deputy Prime Minister. It appears that his desire to become Interior Minister has been thwarted and, instead, he will be expected to concentrate on the problems of the Southern insurgency, which are likely to be far too complex and subtle for him. Meanwhile, the new army chief, General Anupong Paochinda is busy sorting out his power base: he just reassigned 215 senior army commanders so as to ensure those in strategic positions are loyal to him and no other faction in the military. It is unlikely that he will have time before the scheduled election of December 23rd (if it goes ahead) to do much time to interfere with the Burma situation.
India and China, meanwhile, are also apparently reluctant to do anything to upset the Naypidaw brass. Both have motives which are well-aired elsewhere: desire for stability; need for oil and development. And of these, it is the love of oil which is the greatest. Some light may also start to be shed on continuing European investment in the country. There are rumblings in Brussels that legal action will be brought against France’s Total, yet another oil company.
